A Study of the Brazilian Business Cycles (1900 – 2012)

Pedro L. Valls Pereira, Heleno Piazentini Vieira
2014 Brazilian Review of Econometrics  
This paper studies the Brazilian business cycles in the period of 1900 to 2012. Since the quarterly series of the real GDP only starts in 1980 we had to build the series for the period of 1900 to 1979, using the structural time series model with temporal disaggregation for the first period. After that, a Markov Switching Model is estimated in order to build a chronology of the business cycles. The chosen model has two separate regimes with different regimes for expansion and recession, and the
more » ... recession, and the dating carried out in this paper is compared with other studies on the theme, and characterizations for the growth phases that can support studies of the economic history in Brazil are proposed.
doi:10.12660/bre.v33n22013.17176 fatcat:wpd6gmjimzby3h2vdl4oe3gq34