Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) [article]

Xiangjun Du, Aaron A. King, Robert J. Woods, Mercedes Pascual
2017 bioRxiv   pre-print
Inter-pandemic or seasonal influenza exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus' antigenic evolution. We propose here a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino-acid
more » ... s of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States over 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of prediction ahead of season and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season.
doi:10.1101/198168 fatcat:sd6ht6zvsvg67jobkyeibckjay