A system-based model for fatigue assessment of riveted railway bridge connections, comprising a number of basic components, is presented in this paper. Probabilistic fatigue load spectra are developed through Monte Carlo simulation of train passages over a finite element model of a typical, short-span bridge. Uncertainties arising from loading, resistance and modelling sources are taken into account. The riveted connection is treated through a set of generic sub-systems that capture potential

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... mage in identifiable hotspots, such as rivets, holes and angle fillets. The fatigue reliability over time is evaluated through system reliability methods by treating these hot-spots as the elements of a structural system. The results show that the probability of failure of the connection depends significantly on the form of the system adopted for the analysis and the rivet clamping force. Damage scenarios accounting for the potential loss of rivet clamping force are investigated and it is shown that, in some cases, they can affect connection reliability considerably.