Improve the Reliability Measures of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model

Bumjin Park
2014 Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers  
In this study, we investigate to show the limitations of current bus arrival time estimation model based on each bus route, and to propose a bus arrival time estimation model based on a bus stop to overcome these limitations. Using the characteristic of bus arrival time calculated on travel time between two bus stops, we develop a model to estimate bus arrival times with the data of all buses traveling the same section regardless of bus route numbers. In the proposed model, an estimated arrival
more » ... time is calculated by weighted moving average method, and verification between observed value and estimated time is performed on the basis of RMSE. Error was reduced by up to 20% compared to the existing models and the data update period was reduced by more than half that is related to the accuracy of bus arrival time information. We expect to solve the following problems with the suggested method: sudden increase or decrease in arrival time of the bus, the difference of the expected arrival times at the same stop between two or more buses having different route numbers, and impossibility of offering information of a bus if the bus is not operated with the designated schedule.
doi:10.12652/ksce.2014.34.2.0597 fatcat:cr5crj52yfgifetpd2khefhdbi