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Objective Development of a sequential Bayesian methodology for inference and detection of seasonal infectious disease epidemics. Introduction Detection and response to seasonal outbreaks of endemic diseases provides an excellent testbed for quantitative bio-surveillance. As a case study we focus on annual influenza outbreaks. To incorporate observed year-over-year variation in flu incidence cases and timing of outbreaks, we analyze a stochastic compartmental SIS model that includes seasonaldoi:10.5210/ojphi.v5i1.4570 fatcat:77n63k6qofevtky2wgwergemdm