Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the role of seed bank during ecosystem transitions from arid grassland to shrubland. Methods We explored the aboveground vegetation, seed bank and soil environmental factors at 29 sites along a moisture gradient that served as a space-for-time substitution in the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau to test whether changes seed bank composition or changes in the ability of the seed bank to restore aboveground vegetation could lead to ecosystem transition.

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... lts We found that the composition of the aboveground vegetation presented nonlinear changes with decreased soil moisture and showed an inflection point in the threshold zone on the spatial scale of ecosystem transition from arid grassland to shrubland; however, an inflection point was not observed for the seed bank. Surprisingly, an inflection point of the similarity between the aboveground vegetation and seed bank also emerged at this threshold zone (ecosystem transition from arid grassland and shrubland). Conclusions Our results suggest that the transition from arid grassland to shrub ecosystem is not caused by changes of the seed bank composition but by the inhibition of the seed bank's restorability to aboveground vegetation. Future work on changes in vegetation composition and species diversity with ecosystem transitions should consider the belowground seed bank.