Observability obstructs motivated reasoning in autocracy

Elena Sirotkina
2022
Why do people continue to support authoritarian leaders even when their performance is poor? The theories of motivated reasoning in politics explain the paradox with identity-protective behaviour. Dictator supporters almost always frame even her failures in a way that makes her appear advantageous. In this study, I argue that issues observability––which contributes to people's ability to observe problematic issues unmediated––is an understudied factor that might weaken directional reasoning in
more » ... utocracy. As an empirical test, I use the example of Russia, which is a prototypical informational autocracy that consolidates power through information control. First, I show that direct experience with crisis areas leads people to loosen identity-protective behaviour and become more critical of President Putin. My second contribution is to demonstrate that varying conditions of observability require distinct modes of information processing and motivated reasoning, which explains why people arrive at different evaluations. This study takes a citizens' perspective to show why informational autocracies are successful in manipulating largely unobservable issues in the media and how it helps to consolidate dictator supporters. As well this work spots a potential weakness in autocratic information control.
doi:10.17615/ny4v-v306 fatcat:c6mmawmfhfe7pdpb75mmn7sk6m