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Given the role of monetary changes in explaining business cycles, a challenge for regional analysts is to integrate monetary processes into leading indicator models. This paper examines economic processes imbedded in regional models and analyzes changes in forecasting performance when a national monetary indicator is integrated into these models. Performance of the models, with and without the monetary variable, is examined with respect to turning points, volatility, false signals, andfatcat:2gospqbmungqnkccreqqtsddb4