New Space Weather Mitigation Capabilities
W. Tobiska
2010
48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition
unpublished
Three new capabilities are being developed for mitigating space weather effects. First, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) real-time Disturbance stormtime index, Dst, provides an estimate of the magnetosphere ring current and is used by the JB2008 thermospheric density model as a high latitude energy input. An operational USGS Dst system has been prototyped in 2009 with 1minute time granularity and a few minutes latency. A forecast capability to 72hours is being developed for beta testing in
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... and full implementation by 2011. Second, the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) system is developing radiation dose and dose rate real-time estimates for air-crew and passengers. Beta-system testing begins in 2010 with full system implementation in 2011. Third, the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) data assimilative system has been transitioned to commercial operations in 2009. This system provides accurate real-time ionosphere conditions needed for specifying HF communication outages and GPS uncertainties. We report on the progress in each of these three areas and their status towards operational implementation. Legacy of the National Space Weather Program he National Space Weather Program (NSWP) originally outlined a Strategic Plan 1 for a U.S. interagency effort in 1995 to define the space weather discipline, prioritize national goals, identify customers, and develop a support base for characterizing, specifying, and predicting space weather. That effort produced a strategy for realizing space weather goals among U.S. agencies and reached from assessing and documenting the impacts of space weather to identifying customer needs, setting priorities, encouraging and focusing research, and facilitating transition of research results into operations. The objective has been mitigation of hazards from space weather that include regional power blackouts, failure or disruption of high-value satellites, communications disruption (HF, VHF, satellite, long-line), navigation system errors from GPS uncertainties or loss, and excessive radiation doses to humans. By 1997 the NSWP Implementation Plan 2 identified a roadmap, specific objectives, and recommended activities necessary for improving space weather predictive capabilities. By 2000, capabilities were not able to meet the requirements for warning, nowcasting, and forecasting although post-analysis capabilities had become more robust. Thus, a second edition Implementation Plan 3 was released and provided a new level of detail to guide researchers in the domains of the ionosphere/thermosphere, magnetosphere, and solar/solar wind. In that document 21 solar and solar wind, 21 magnetospheric, and 31 ionospheric research models were uniquely identified and physics-based modeling to improve predictive capabilities was emphasized. In 2006 a reassessment of the NSWP was completed with findings described in a NSWP Assessment Report 4 . While overall progress had been made in the transition of research into opera-
doi:10.2514/6.2010-77
fatcat:a7itsgkdsjdatme35hmxa2jbvm