When assessing and predicting the security, development and poverty of a state, fragility becomes a research hot spot in recent years. The evaluation system model of fragility is established based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to analyze how climate change affects fragility directly or indirectly, then the abstract problem is transferred into a mathematic one. When the weight of index identified, the fragility could be calculated and the sensitive index can be obtained by

more »

... l Amplification. Since the trend of development can lead to the fluctuation of fragility, quadratic smooth in time series method is applied to predict the change of the fragility. Then strategies are put forward to mitigate the impact of climate change on fragility. Besides, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized to extend the model to evaluate the fragility of continents. When conducting the experiment, the result accords with the reality.