In January 2020, the author found that novel coronaviruses are prone to mutation, and strong pathogenic mutations may occur from time to time due to the morphological and structural characteristics of SARS-COV-2. It is difficult or impossible for COVID-19 vaccines to prevent future COVID-19 infections, and unexpected adverse reactions may occur. Mass vaccination without regard to timing does not conform to the principles of medical behavioral economics and puts a heavy burden on the government.

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... The protection period after vaccination is limited, and vaccination needs to be continued after the expiration. At the same cost, the timing of vaccination becomes more critical. How to allow citizens to obtain the longest protection period and the best protection after vaccination under safe conditions is a question that should be considered when implementing vaccination. Even 90% of the population has completed vaccination, thus realizing the original concept of herd immunity. However, once active physical isolation and social distancing controls are abandoned, about 10 - 70% or more infections may occur in at-risk areas. One month before the Tokyo Olympics, the author published article with relevant opinions on the preprint, and the current epidemic situation is as expected by him in the past.