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In a context of areas of limited statehood and contested order, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have been affected by similar diffuse global and more specific regional and local risks over the past two decades. Yet they differ in outcomes. Lebanon has not descended into civil war despite fears that the one raging in Syria might spill over to its territory and Iraq has coped better over the past decade than Syria hasdespite having been subject to various forms of conflict since 1980. We analyse thisdoi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1940967 fatcat:vcrol3hrkvcr5ju6yxqrm57274