Reply on EC1 [peer_review]

Ki-Hong Min
2022 unpublished
Gangwon-do (GWD) has complex terrain and surface characteristics due to its location to the East Sea and the Taebaek Mountain range. This coastal location and rugged terrain can amplify snowfall mechanisms, making it challenging to accurately predict the amount and location. This study compares two methods for assimilating radar data and analyzed snowfall prediction results. The two methods compared are local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) and three-dimensional variational (3DVAR)
more » ... assimilation (DA). LETKF improved the water vapor amount and temperature using the covariance of the ensemble members, but 3DVAR improved the water vapor mixing ratio and temperature through an operator that assumed the atmosphere was saturated when reflectivity was above a certain threshold. In 2018, to understand the snowfall in GWD region and support the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, a long-term heavy snow observation campaign was conducted. The International Collaborative Experiments for the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympic Games Projects (ICE-POP 2018) data are used to study and verify the numerical experiments. From the initial field verification using ICE-POP observation data (radiosonde), wind in LETKF was more accurately simulated than 3DVAR, but it underestimated the water vapor amount and temperature in the lower troposphere due to a lack of a water vapor and temperature observation operator. Snowfall in GWD was less simulated in LETKF, whereas snowfall of 10.0 mm or more was simulated in 3DVAR, resulting in an error of 2.62 mm lower than LETKF. The results signify that water vapor assimilation is important in radar DA and significantly impacts precipitation forecasts, regardless of the DA method used. Therefore, it is necessary to apply observation operators for water vapor and temperature in radar DA. Introduction In winter in the Korean Peninsula, natural disasters, such as heavy snowfall, primarily cause property and human damage. The Gangwon-do (GWD) region is characterized by a large amount of precipitation due to heavy snowfall and long snowfall days compared to other regions in South Korea. Mechanisms generating heavy snowfall systems in the GWD region can be divided into heavy snow caused by a low-pressure system and an airmass modification-type snowfall system. Airmass modification-type snowfall is characterized by cold and dry continental airmass moving over relatively warm and humid sea surfaces, receiving heat and water vapor, forming a snowfall system at sea, and causing heavy snow to the ground at physical
doi:10.5194/gmd-2022-18-ac1 fatcat:3g4e6wmc2ncnjk7hzbrw4xjs64