Stochastic model is necessary for planning and implementation of water works in ephemeral rivers of arid and semi-arid regions. Accurate estimation of stream flow in arid and semi-arid regions is an important, critical and crucial task in many cases, however daily discharge data is usually limited in such regions. It even occurs for short term rainfall series, whereas monthly and yearly rainfall series usually do not show such manner In this study a model is considered for daily discharge data

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... f Firoozabad basin of Kerman province, Iran which includes identification of some factors including occurrence of flow time, flow increment, flow increment magnitude and calculation of flow reduced decrement. The Markov chain, increments of the rising limb and an exponential recession of the hydrograph were used. The observed daily gauging flow data were used for parameter estimation as well. The model is then applied to daily flow series records which showed that not only the model can show the long-term characteristics of the hydrograph but also it can predict its short-term characteristics.