Validation of an integrated satellite-data-driven response to an effusive crisis: the April–May 2018 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise

Andrew Harris, Magdalena Chevrel, Diego Coppola, Michael Ramsey, Alexis Hrysiewicz, Simon Thivet, Nicolas Villeneuve, Massimiliano Favalli, Aline Peltier, Philippe Kowalski, Andrea Di Muro, Jean‐Luc Froger (+1 others)
2019 Annals of Geophysics  
Satellite-based surveillance of volcanic hot spots and plumes can be coupled with 17 modeling to allow ensemble-based approaches to crisis response. We complete benchmark tests on 18 an effusive crisis response protocol aimed at delivering product for use in tracking lava flows. The 19 response involves integration of four models: MIROVA for discharge rate (TADR), the ASTER urgent 20 response protocol for delivery of high-spatial resolution satellite data, DOWNFLOW for flow path 21 projections,
more » ... and PyFLOWGO for flow run-out. We test the protocol using the data feed available 22 during Piton de la Fournaise's April-May 2018 eruption, with product being delivered to the 23 Observatoire du Piton de la Fournaise via Google Drive. The response was initialized by an alert at 24 19:50Z on 27 April 2018. Initially DOWNFLOW-FLOWGO were run using TADRs typical of Piton de la 25 Fournaise, and revealed that flow at >120 m 3 /s could reach the island belt road. The first TADR (10-26 20 m 3 /s) was available at 09:55Z on 28 April, and gave flow run-outs of 1180-2510 m. The latency 27 between satellite overpass and TADR provision was 105 minutes, with the model result being posted 28 15 minutes later. An InSAR image pair was completed six hours after the eruption began, and gave a 29 flow length of 1.8 km; validating the run-out projection. Thereafter, run-outs were updated with 30 each new TADR, and checked against flow lengths reported from InSAR and ASTER mapping. In all, 31 35 TADRs and 15 InSAR image pairs were processed during the 35-day-long eruption, and 11 ASTER 32 images were delivered. 33
doi:10.4401/ag-7972 fatcat:bymguakaf5bulnmlhtbsuy3eua