Exploration Decision-Making on Energy Based On Improved Real Option Model and BP Neural Networks

Min Ma
2016 International Journal of Control and Automation  
Based on real options method to construct a petroleum exploration and development projects of integrated economic evaluation model, application mechanism real option method in oil and gas exploration and development projects around the expansion, the option value to identify and analyze the process of exploration and development projects exist. Finally, select the appropriate option pricing model, instance data analyzed by gas exploration and development projects, and its contrast with the
more » ... tional analysis, pointed out that application of real options method can effectively improve the investment project economic evaluation of science. In this paper, to build an economic evaluation method based on real options method of energy development projects, and to explore applications based on the principle of real options to develop economic evaluation method, proposed mostly for exploration stage oil and gas exploration and development project abandonment option binomial model and the development phase stop start option of partial differential equations, is determined based on the actual parameters of such projects, and to provide solutions to parameter estimation. Binomial Option Pricing Model changes in the value of the underlying assets of a simple description based in each time period, the underlying assets can take only two possible outcomes of a value. Widely used in multi-stage uncertainty binomial model, the asset has an initial value of A, in a short period of time, it goes up or Au, or down into Ad. AuZ, Aud. Figure 4 illustrates the binary tree and how it gets the final moments of the distribution of various outcomes. In the distribution, each result corresponds to a vertical bar, vertical bar represents the length of all possible paths in the binary tree in the frequency of occurrence of the result.
doi:10.14257/ijca.2016.9.10.36 fatcat:h2pahfle3zemjjckjjkaa5fk5u