Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods

Shanshan Wang, Xing Yuan
2018 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions  
Extreme pluvial floods across China's Yangtze River basin in the summer of 2016 was strongly connected with intense atmospheric moisture transport, and resulted in vast loss of properties after a strong El Niño winter. Predicting such extreme floods in advance is essential for hazard mitigation, but the flood forecast skill is relatively low due to the limited predictability of summer precipitation. By using a <q>perfect model</q> assumption, here we show that atmospheric moisture flux has a
more » ... sture flux has a higher potential predictability than precipitation over the Yangtze River at seasonal time scales. The predictability of precipitation and moisture are higher in post-El Niño summers than those in post-La Niñas, especially for flooding events. As compared with extreme precipitation, the potential detectability of extreme moisture increases by 20&amp;thinsp;% in post-El Niño summers, which suggests that atmospheric moisture could be crucial for early warning of Yangtze River summer floods.
doi:10.5194/hess-2018-112 fatcat:tqdhez4jsjdobblhaqdbfpit4m