Detecting Disease Outbreaks Using Local Spatiotemporal Methods

Yingqi Zhao, Donglin Zeng, Amy H. Herring, Amy Ising, Anna Waller, David Richardson, Michael R. Kosorok
2011 Biometrics  
A real-time surveillance method is developed with emphasis on rapid and accurate detection of emerging outbreaks. We develop a model with relatively weak assumptions regarding the latent processes generating the observed data, ensuring a robust prediction of the spatiotemporal incidence surface. Estimation occurs via a local linear fitting combined with day-of-week effects, where spatial smoothing is handled by a novel distance metric that adjusts for population density. Detection of emerging
more » ... tbreaks is carried out via residual analysis. Both daily residuals and AR model-based de-trended residuals are used for detecting abnormalities in the data given that either a large daily residual or an increasing temporal trend in the residuals signals a potential outbreak, with the threshold for statistical significance determined using a resampling approach.
doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2011.01585.x pmid:21418049 pmcid:PMC3698245 fatcat:yoz3iarnv5c3pg2ohmtno5fvva