The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Consolidation in the European Union

Willi Semmler, Andrr Semmler
2013 Social Science Research Network  
We show that in the EU there were diverse causes for the sovereign debt crisis. Yet, scal austerity was hastily imposed assuming that the multiplier would be weak and scal consolidation could quickly be achieved. Yet, it turned out that scal consolidation is state dependent: It is substantially more contractionary if undertaken during a recession than during an expansion. There is no single multiplier for all times. The scal multiplier is regime dependent and depends on the economic environment
more » ... and business cycle regimes. The success of the multiplier and the debt stabilization depend on nancial stress, credit spreads, the vulnerability of the banking system, monetary policy actions, the state of internal and external demand, exchange rates and so on. Empirical studies are reviewed that have used regime change models and Multi-Regime VARs (MRVARs) to estimate and evaluate state dependent scal and monetary policies. We show that consolidation policies in certain regimes can be strongly contractionary which is replicated in a dynamic model using a new solution method. Furthermore, not only are the contractionary impacts of aggregate scal policy (public expenditure and revenue) to be considered, but also the composition of scal consolidations, aecting health, education, infrastructure, and public consumption, as well as their distrubtuional impacts.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2320198 fatcat:mkrcbjppxnapxchphjnvtodjzq