Patient risk profiling in acute medicine: the way forward?
QJM: Quarterly journal of medicine
The identification of high-risk patients could form a basis for targetted intervention following an emergency medical admission. Methods: All emergency admissions to our institution over 12 years were included. An Illness Severity method based on admission laboratory parameters, previously developed between 2002 and 2007, was investigated for the 2008-13 cohort. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) to predict a 30-day in-hospital death between the original
... validating cohorts using logistic multiple variable analyses. We defined six risk subgroups, based on admission laboratory data and examined the frequency of 30-day in-hospital mortality within these subgroups. Results: About 66 933 admissions were recorded in 36 271 patients. Between 2002 and 2007, the 30-day in-hospital mortality was 11.3% but between 2008 and 2013 was 6.7% (P < 0.001). This represented an absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 4.6%, a relative risk reduction (RRR) of 41.0%, and a number needed to treat of 21.6. The laboratory model was similarly predictive in both cohorts-for 2002-07, the AUROC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.82) and for 2008-13 was 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.83). Two high-risk subgroups were identified within each cohort; for 2002-07, these contained 15.0 and 30.2% of admitted patients but 95.5% of in-hospital deaths. For 2008-13, these two groups contained 15.7 and 31.0% of admitted patients but 97.0% of in-hospital deaths. Conclusion: A previously described laboratory score method, based on admission biochemistry, identified patients at high risk for an in-hospital death. Risk profiling at admission is feasible for emergency medical admissions and could offer a means to outcome improvement.