Modeling and projecting health-relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate

Sally Jahn, Elke Hertig
2020 Air quality, atmosphere and health  
Statistical models to evaluate the relationships between large-scale meteorological conditions, prevailing air pollution levels and combined ozone and temperature events, were developed during the 1993–2012 period with Central Europe as regional focus. Combined ozone and temperature events were defined based on the high frequency of coinciding, health-relevant elevated levels of daily maximum tropospheric ozone concentrations (based on running 8-h means) and daily maximum temperature values in
more » ... he peak ozone and temperature season from April to September. By applying two different modeling approaches based on lasso, logistic regression, and multiple linear regression mean air temperatures at 850 hPa, ozone persistence, surface thermal radiation, geopotential heights at 850 hPa, meridional winds at 500 hPa, and relative humidity at 500 hPa were identified as main drivers of combined ozone and temperature events. Statistical downscaling projections until the end of the twenty-first century were assessed by using the output of seven models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Potential frequency shifts were evaluated by comparing the mid- (2031–2050) and late-century (2081–2100) time windows to the base period (1993–2012). A sharp increase of ozone-temperature events was projected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario assumptions with respective multi-model mean changes of 8.94% and 16.84% as well as 13.33% and 37.52% for mid- and late-century European climate.
doi:10.1007/s11869-020-00961-0 fatcat:pamex7gt4vaerpwsdinyinsbwy