BANKA MEVDUATLARI VE SANAYİ ÜRETİMİ İLİŞKİSİ: PARASAL AKTARIM MEKANİZMASI ÜZERİNE BİR NEDENSELLİK İNCELEMESİ
Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences
Fon fazlası olanların, tasarruflarını fon açığı olanlara aktarması finansal piyasaların temelini oluşturur. Bu konuda para piyasasının öncü aktörü olan mevduat bankaları önemli birer aracı kurum rolü üstlenir. Mevduat bankalarda toplanan mevduatın doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak yatırımlar yoluyla üretime aktarılması beklenir. Diğer yandan, üretim faaliyetlerinin artmasının bir sonucu olarak gelirin artması ve bunun da tasarruflara yansıması diğer bir beklentidir. Mevduat toplamı ve sanayi üretimi
... ı ve sanayi üretimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, Ocak 2008 -Aralık 2019 dönemi için Granger (1986) nedensellik testi ile Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans nedensellik testi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, sanayi üretimindeki değişim ile mevduatlardaki değişim arasında tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre, sanayi üretimindeki değişim kısa dönemde mevduatlardaki değişime neden olmaktadır. Uzun dönemde ise, herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi oluşmamaktadır. Özetle, kısa dönemde tespit edilen nedenselliğin geçici olduğu, dolayısıyla kalıcı olmayacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. A B S T R A C T The transfer of the savings to those with fund deficits constitutes the basis of financial markets. Deposit banks, which are the leading actors of the money market, play an important intermediary role. Deposits are expected to be transferred to deposits in banks directly or indirectly through investments. On the other hand, it is another expectation that revenue increases as a result of increased production activities, and this is reflected in savings. In this study, which examines the causality relationship between deposit total and industrial production, Granger's (1986) causality test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) frequency causality test are conducted throughout January 2008 -December 2019. The obtained study results reveal the presence of a unilateral causality between the change in industrial production and the change in the total of bank deposits. Accordingly, the change in industrial production causes changes in bank deposits in the short-run. In the long run, however, there is no such causal relationship. In summary, it is concluded that the causality detected in the short-run is temporary and therefore cannot be permanent. thought that the financial system has a significant impact on growth. According to Hicks and Bagehot, capital mobility played an important role in igniting industrialization in England. Schumpeter, on the other hand, expressed that banks played an important role in ensuring the success of entrepreneurs in applying new products and production methods by providing long-term loans. Robinson states that entrepreneurs play an important role in financial development. Other economists claimed that there was no relationship between economic growth and financial development. Economists like Robert Lucas supported the opinion that financial factors were heavily involved in economic growth. Another economist Nicholas Stern stated that the role of the financial system was not discussed in developing countries. Financial systems emerge as an important factor in the economic growth process, as they undertake the function of providing funds to spread new technologies and realize capital accumulation. Financial markets, which are developed and fulfill their functions effectively, can direct small deposits that are in the hands of individuals, to direct investments to large investments, to enable investment diversification, to reduce the risks of savers, to collect information, and evaluate the projects that are considered to be implemented, to reduce the costs of their expertise and to monitor the management of resources. It can increase efficiency and thus economic growth by undertaking such functions. Banks, as the engines of the financial system, have an important place in the development of the economy. They have important duties such as intermediating between funders and demanders, providing liquidity, providing funding by investing funds, helping the development of domestic and foreign trade, and ensuring effectiveness in the development of monetary policies. In this respect, the healthy structure of the banks is an extremely crucial issue for ensuring stability in the national economy. Banks' gain in healthy structures is also dependent on improving profitability levels. The sound profitability levels of the banks make a significant contribution to both the efficient operation of banks and economic stability. Profitability is a vital issue for banks, as deposit banks can be described as companies aiming to maximize their profits or trying to maximize their market shares. Upon considering the concept of profitability in the context of systematic risk, the profitability, failure, and risks of a bank can affect the entire financial system. The transfer of the savings to those with fund deficits constitutes the basis of financial markets. Deposit banks, which are the leading actors of the money market, play an important intermediary role. Deposits are expected to be transferred to deposits in banks directly or indirectly through investments. On the other hand, it is another expectation that revenue increases as a result of increased production activities, and this is reflected in savings. Deposit banks mediate the establishment of the relationship between those who have excess funds as the main activity and those who need funds. As a result of this activity, deposits collected are expected to be transferred to production. With the opposite view, the increase in production would increase revenue and therefore production. The mutuality of this transfer relationship is a desirable situation for economies. This study aims to determine whether the industrial production in Turkey and there is a mutual relationship between the total deposits. In this study, which examines the causality relationship between deposit total and industrial production, Granger's (1986) causality test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) frequency causality test are conducted throughout January 2008 -December 2019. The data included in the analysis are the Industrial Production Index and Total Deposit. Industrial Production Index is an economic indicator that measures the actual output of production, mining, and utilities. This index, along with other industrial indices and construction, is a major part of the change in national output throughout the business cycle. The Industrial Production Index level is an abstract number representing the production situation in the industry sector for a certain period compared to the reference period. This index represents the total growth in the industry sector. Just like GNP, this index is expected to have a positive relationship with the performance of the banking sector, when it is assumed to have an impact on the demand for and supply of banks' loans. The results obtained from the analyses reveal the existence of a unilateral causality relationship. Accordingly, it can be said that changes in industrial production cause changes in deposits. The finding in this direction reveals that the increases and decreases in industrial production are important in determining the increases and decreases in deposit totals. On the other hand, no significant effect of increases and decreases in deposit totals on increases and decreases in industrial production is found. Thus, increasing or decreasing deposits within the country's economy do not cause industrial production changes. In this context, deposits could not be regarded as one of the factors causing industrial production. Within the analysis, it is found that the causality relationship determined from changes in industrial production toward changes in deposits is short-term and temporary. This result reveals that, upon evaluating in terms of the national economy, an increase in industrial production would also increase deposits, albeit temporarily. mevduatlar arasındaki ilişkiyi sadece Türkiye açısından ortaya koymaktadır. Daha fazla ülkenin dâhil edildiği analizler ise yeni çalışmaların konusunu oluşturabilecektir.