Several man-made islands have been constructed in Osaka Bay. Their consolidation behaviors should be predicted to maintain and manage the facilities and infrastructures located on the islands. However, it is difficult to predict their consolidation settlements accurately before their construction. Therefore, it is desirable to predict their settlement behaviors in the future through field measurements from the commencement of the construction. Data assimilation methods have been extensively

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... in various scientific fields within the past few years. Such methods are used to identify the simulation model through which a reasonable prediction can be performed by correcting a simulation according to field measurements. In this study, the particle filter method, which is a data assimilation technique, was applied to identify the simulation model for reproducing the consolidation behavior of the Ma12 layer, which is the upper Pleistocene clay layer in Osaka Bay. First, numerical analysis was conducted for reproducing the consolidation behavior of Ma12, including application of the particle filter method. A compression curve as conventional as possible was adopted for use in the numerical analysis. Then, the analysis model was established by considering the positions of pore water pressure meters installed within the Ma12 layer. Moreover, the consolidation parameters before data assimilation were determined based on the results of the soil tests. Finally, the applicability of the identified analytical model was assessed by comparing the field measurements and analytical results of both consolidation settlement and pore water pressures.