Global Analysis of Potential COVID 19 Transmission and Enabling Factors

Hesham Magd, Henry Karyamsetty
2021 Trends Journal of Sciences Research  
Coronavirus disease has caused global turmoil especially causing huge impact on human life all over the world. Current reports states more than 3 million people have lost life and more than 160 million people are known to be suspected with the SARS-CoV-2. Transmission and disease incidence rates are indicators to assess the seriousness of COVID-19 pandemic and studies to understand the factors that aid in this direction are very vital to curb the disease. Methods: The study intends to discover
more » ... he relationship by performing statistical analysis using correlation and multiple linear regression analysis between the variable's population density, temperature, relative humidity, and active time of virus and find out the parameters that predict the cases reported per million population in 83 countries. Results: Analysis indicates active time of virus in days is very positively associated with the COVID -19 cases in all the countries r = .604, p < .01. Active time of virus shows strong negative correlation with temperature r = -.930, p < .01 revealing that rise in temperature will reduce the virus activity in the population. Together, these variables will account for 36.2% variance in the cases per million population with no significant prediction estimated from any factor. Conclusion: The study outcomes clearly state that population density alone is insufficient to estimate the extent of influence on COVID -19 cases as the number of persons living per sq. km of land is a dynamic quantity tend to fluctuate over time and space due to migration of population. In conjunction to the previous studies reported on the environmental and climatic factors influencing the cases reported, population dynamics does not show much significance on the disease spread and incidence. Contribution: The rise in confirmed cases and the high incidence rate reported in countries can be attributed to the active time of virus life expectancy as there is a positive correlation observed between the COVID-19 cases reported and the virus active time in the examined countries. Also, environment and climatic factors play a role in modulating the infection and transmission rate with less significant influence of population density on the COVID-19.
doi:10.31586/gjeid.2021.010103 fatcat:hshdc2nwq5gajfzx5y3ndduiwy