Decadal variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by documentary-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years

Jingyun Zheng, Yingzhuo Yu, Xuezhen Zhang, Zhixin Hao
2018 Climate of the Past Discussions  
<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Using the 17-sites seasonal precipitation reconstructions from an unique historical archive, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun, the decadal variations of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability of less than 10<span class="thinspace"></span>% from 1951 to 2000) in North China were investigated, by considering both the probabilities of droughts/floods occurrence in each site and spatial coverage (i.e., percentage of sites). Then, the possible linkages
more » ... possible linkages of extreme droughts and floods with ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) episodes and large volcanic eruptions were discussed. The results show that there were 29 extreme droughts and 28 extreme floods in North China from 1736 to 2000. Extreme droughts occurred more frequently (2 or more events) during the 1770s&amp;ndash;1780s, 1870s, 1900s&amp;ndash;1920s, 1940s and 1980s&amp;ndash;1990s, among which the most frequent (3 events) occurred in the 1900s and the 1920s. While more frequent extreme floods occurred in the 1770s, 1790s, 1820s, 1880s, 1910s and 1950s&amp;ndash;1960s, among which the most frequent (4 events) occurred in the 1790s and 1880s. For the total of extreme droughts and floods, they are more frequent in the 1770s, 1790s, 1870s&amp;ndash;1880s, 1900s&amp;ndash;1920s and 1960s, and the highest frequency (5 events) occurred in the 1790s. A higher probability of the extreme drought was found when El Niño occurred in the current year or the previous year. However, no significant connections were found not only between the occurrences of extreme floods and ENSO episodes, but also between the occurrences of extreme droughts/floods and large volcanic eruptions.</p>
doi:10.5194/cp-2018-45 fatcat:buxjpoh2lfbcphtx2nlgep3kum