District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, prolonging the investment return period. The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand

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... door temperature function for heat demand forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665 buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications (the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. Abstract Currently, turbomachinery design optimization methodologies are mainly restricted to steady state approaches, due to the high computational cost associated with time-accurate shape optimization algorithms. However, the possibility to include unsteady effects in turbomachinery optimization can significantly increase the level of accuracy of the design predictions, leading to a more realistic representation of the actual performance and ultimately to a substantial increase in operating efficiency. Unsteady effects are particularly relevant in Organic Rankine Cycle turbines. A trade-off between high-fidelity time-accurate unsteady simulations of the flow solution and computational cost is therefore needed at design level. In this paper, a first application of the harmonic balance method to non-ideal compressible flows is presented. The methodology allows to solve the unsteady flow equations for a set of specified frequencies only, with significant computational time savings. An algorithm is proposed for non uniform time sampling in order to resolve frequencies that do not need to be integral multiple of one fundamental harmonic. This enables the solution of quasi-periodically forced non-linear flow problems, in combination with complex fluid models based on accurate equations of state. The method is applied to the unsteady analysis of a supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle stator with quasi-periodic inlet operating conditions, showing about one order magnitude lower computational cost compared to time-accurate simulations. Abstract Currently, turbomachinery design optimization methodologies are mainly restricted to steady state approaches, due to the high computational cost associated with time-accurate shape optimization algorithms. However, the possibility to include unsteady effects in turbomachinery optimization can significantly increase the level of accuracy of the design predictions, leading to a more realistic representation of the actual performance and ultimately to a substantial increase in operating efficiency. Unsteady effects are particularly relevant in Organic Rankine Cycle turbines. A trade-off between high-fidelity time-accurate unsteady simulations of the flow solution and computational cost is therefore needed at design level. In this paper, a first application of the harmonic balance method to non-ideal compressible flows is presented. The methodology allows to solve the unsteady flow equations for a set of specified frequencies only, with significant computational time savings. An algorithm is proposed for non uniform time sampling in order to resolve frequencies that do not need to be integral multiple of one fundamental harmonic. This enables the solution of quasi-periodically forced non-linear flow problems, in combination with complex fluid models based on accurate equations of state. The method is applied to the unsteady analysis of a supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle stator with quasi-periodic inlet operating conditions, showing about one order magnitude lower computational cost compared to time-accurate simulations. Abstract Currently, turbomachinery design optimization methodologies are mainly restricted to steady state approaches, due to the high computational cost associated with time-accurate shape optimization algorithms. However, the possibility to include unsteady effects in turbomachinery optimization can significantly increase the level of accuracy of the design predictions, leading to a more realistic representation of the actual performance and ultimately to a substantial increase in operating efficiency. Unsteady effects are particularly relevant in Organic Rankine Cycle turbines. A trade-off between high-fidelity time-accurate unsteady simulations of the flow solution and computational cost is therefore needed at design level. In this paper, a first application of the harmonic balance method to non-ideal compressible flows is presented. The methodology allows to solve the unsteady flow equations for a set of specified frequencies only, with significant computational time savings. An algorithm is proposed for non uniform time sampling in order to resolve frequencies that do not need to be integral multiple of one fundamental harmonic. This enables the solution of quasi-periodically forced non-linear flow problems, in combination with complex fluid models based on accurate equations of state. The method is applied to the unsteady analysis of a supersonic Organic Rankine Cycle stator with quasi-periodic inlet operating conditions, showing about one order magnitude lower computational cost compared to time-accurate simulations.