Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution

Xinyu Wang, Kegui Chen, Xueping Tan
2018 Mathematical Problems in Engineering  
This paper proposes a novel approach to the directional forecasting problem of short-term oil price changes. In this approach, the short-term oil price series is associated with incomplete fuzzy information, and a new fused genetic-fuzzy information distribution method is developed to process such a fuzzy incomplete information set; then a feasible coding method of multidimensional information controlling points is adopted to fit genetic-fuzzy information distribution to time series
more » ... Using the crude oil spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent as sample data, the empirical analysis results demonstrate that the novel fused genetic-fuzzy information distribution method statistically outperforms the benchmark of logistic regression model in prediction accuracy. The results indicate that this new approach is effective in direction accuracy.
doi:10.1155/2018/3868923 fatcat:xaoxzv7ewragfhlbki3srtj55i