A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL TIME SERIES: SOME SELECTED FOOD GRAIN IN BANGLADESH

Md. Salauddin Khan, Masudul Islam, Md. Rasel Kabir, Lasker Ershad Ali
2016 JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES  
Bangladesh bureau of statistics (BBS) publish a statistical year book in every year where comprehensive and systematic summary of basic statistical information of Bangladesh covering wide range of fields. BBS also forecast different sectors such as economics, weather, agriculture etc in different time in this country. In this paper we mainly concern on the wheat, rice and maize foodgrain which plays a vital role in economic development of Bangladesh. The main purposes of this paper as to
more » ... paper as to compare which techniques are better BBS's or statistical techniques for forecasting. There are different forecasting models are available in statistics among these we used Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. For this reason, we clarify the stationary and non-stationary series by graphical method. On the basis of that, the stationary model is being set up as the forecasting purpose. After analyze, we compare the forecasting result of our selective foodgrain and find that forecasted values using statistical techniques are nearest to the actual values compare to BBS's projected values.
doi:10.26782/jmcms.2016.01.00002 fatcat:7kqxxt7qnvehli6inyo2o7cvj4