Forecasting of Badr Airlines Domestic Services Total Cost
IOSR Journal of Mathematics
This paper attempt to estimate and forecast the total cost of Badr Airlines domestic services. The data were obtained from the Planning Directorate of Sudan Civil Aviation Authority and Air Transport Directorate. The data were statistically analyzed the annual cost function of Badr Airlines for the period from 2004 to 2013. The researcher study was to find out how the total cost (TC) behaves in relation to the domestic output, in revenue passenger (PAX), cargo/ freight (FRT), fuel cost (FC) and
... fuel cost (FC) and load factor (LF). The result shall lead us to estimate an airline cost function, by using Classical Normal Regression model (CNLRM) to analyze the data obtained for this research. The model is represented as follows: The Classical Normal Linear Regression Model (CNLRM) is acceptable to the predictive purpose of forecasting the function of Badr Airlines total cost, with a high statistically significant value at 5% level. This result means that the estimated regression models make sense; with strong power for prediction and forecast. From the forecast result for the period 2014-2018 the researcher concluded that the total cost of Badr Airlines, shall increase during the next five years. This is clearly noted in Badr Airlines activities as reflected in their current actual status in 2016, due to its remarkable increasing fleet number and operational activities and route.