A reaction-diffusion system to better comprehend the unlockdown: Application of SEIR-type model with diffusion to the spatial spread of COVID-19 in France

Youcef Mammeri
2020 Computational and Mathematical Biophysics  
AbstractWe wondered that if a reaction-diffusion model considering only the mean daily movement of susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic individuals was enough to describe the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed infection and death from France as well as their initial spatial distribution. First, the system of partial differential equations is studied, then the basic reproduction number, 𝒭0 is derived. Second, numerical simulations, based on a
more » ... ns, based on a combination of level-set and finite differences, shown the spatial spread of COVID-19 from March 16 to June 16. Finally, scenarios of unlockdown are compared according to variation of distancing, or partially spatial lockdown.
doi:10.1515/cmb-2020-0104 fatcat:fxmfa6qpsvgqhcduiy7zesklyq