Optimal control techniques based on infection age for the study of the COVID-19 epidemic

Joseph Frédéric Bonnans, Justina Gianatti
2020 Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena  
We propose a model for the COVID-19 epidemic where the population is partitioned into classes corresponding to ages (that remain constant during the epidemic). The main feature is to take into account the infection age of the infected population. This allows to better simulate the infection propagation that crucially depend on the infection age. We discuss how to estimate the coefficients from data available in the future, and introduce a confinement variable as control. The cost function is a
more » ... ompromise between a confinement term, the hospitalization peak and the death toll. Our numerical experiments allow to evaluate the interest of confinement varying with age classes.
doi:10.1051/mmnp/2020035 fatcat:mo7wwb57hnamvm4ckbna475ufu