Comprehensive assessment of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

S Simak, Yu Davydiuk, N Burdeina, M Budiaiev, O Taran, K Ingram
2020 Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu  
orcid.org/0000-0003-1251-7288, Yu. Davydiuk 2 , orcid.org/0000-0003-4179-9675, n. Burdeina 3 , orcid.org/0000-0002-3070-1866, m. Budiaiev 4 , orcid.org/0000-0003-3783-5020, O. taran 5 , orcid.org/0000-0001-6226-4907, K. ingram 6 Ukraine 3 -Odesa Military Academy, Odesa, Ukraine 4 -Kyiv national economic university named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine 5 -Kharkiv National Agrarian University named after V. V. Dokuchaev, Kharkiv, Ukraine 6 -Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania
more » ... , Lithuania cOmprehenSiVe ASSeSSment Of the ecOnOmic cOnSequenceS Of the cOViD-19 pAnDemic purpose. To analyse and summarize some aspects of the negative impact of coronavirus infection Covid19 and to provide a comprehensive assessment of the consequences of the pandemic on the world economy and the economy of Ukraine in particular. methodology. The study used a comprehensive analytical assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the world economy, based on reports and prognostic assessments of wellknown scientists and experts, international financial and credit rating organi zations, as well as personal observations of the authors. findings. The obtained results testify the aggravation of the economic situation in the world and in Ukraine in particular. In a short time (six months), world GDP decreased by almost 4 %, and in such major countries as the United States -by 9.1 %, the EU -by 14.4 %, Ukraine -by 11.4 %. This is evidenced by declining industrial production, declining productivity, bankruptcy and liquidation of small, micro and individual entrepreneur enterprises, declining household incomes and rising unemployment. There is a situation when governments do not focus on the development of the internal market, but increase the amount of credit resources taken to cover the balance sheet deficit. Incentives implemented in most countries around the world to support the busi ness environment and the population show that this level reaches 10-25 % of GDP. At the same time, the current fund in Ukraine was only 1.5 %, which is clearly insufficient. The introduction of strict restrictions in Ukraine in 5 stages has led to the closure of many small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, which reduces revenues to budgets at various levels. Thus, the spheres most affected by quarantine measures were arts, sports, entertainment and recreation (almost 80 % drop in income), research and de velopment (73 %) forestry and logging (67 %), the least affected -financial and insurance activities (only 5.4 %). Thus, the projec tions developed by leading international and credit rating institutions indicate the disappointing consequences for the world econ omy by the end of 2020, after which a gradual thawing will begin. However, it is unclear how the economic recovery will continue if quarantine measures continue. This may be evidence of erroneous forecasts and the deepening recession in the world economy. Originality. We propose to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the main indicators of the state and development of the eco nomic situation using the following indicators: annual GDP growth, ratio of public debt to GDP, unemployment, consumer price index, annual inflation, industrial production, business confidence and consumer confidence index. The set of these indicators reflects the trend of economic development in a crisis situation. practical value. This technique can be used by specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, research institutions and institutes, individual scientists as a basis for monitoring the situation in the country and regions during the economic crisis.
doi:10.33271/nvngu/2020-6/168 fatcat:bib7woqhhjao7cmpoxssvlhkeq