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Modeling the Covid-19 Epidemic using Time Series Econometrics
[article]
2020
medRxiv
pre-print
The classic 'logistic' model has provided a realistic model of the behavior of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in Italy and Spain, and now the UK and many other Western countries, the experience has been very different. The daily count has fallen back gradually from the peak but remained stubbornly high. The reason
doi:10.1101/2020.06.01.20118612
fatcat:jxzp2scwdra5dhn2c6mnhg5iay