Selection of Heteroscedastic Models: A Time Series Forecasting Approach

Imo Udo Moffat, Emmanuel Alphonsus Akpan
2019 Applied Mathematics  
To overcome the weaknesses of in-sample model selection, this study adopted out-of-sample model selection approach for selecting models with improved forecasting accuracies and performances. Daily closing share prices were obtained from Diamond Bank and Fidelity Bank as listed in the Nigerian Stock , consisting of 23 observations, was used for out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation. Combined linear (ARIMA) and Nonlinear (GARCH-type) models were applied on the returns series with
more » ... t to normal and student-t distributions. The findings revealed that ARIMA (2,1,1)-EGARCH (1,1)-norm and ARIMA (1,1,0)-EGARCH (1,1)-norm models selected based on minimum predictive errors throughout-of-sample approach outperformed ARIMA (2,1,1)-GARCH (2,0)-std and ARIMA (1,1,0)-EGARCH (1,1)-std model chosen through in-sample approach. Therefore, it could be deduced that out-of-sample model selection approach was suitable for selecting models with improved forecasting accuracies and performances.
doi:10.4236/am.2019.105024 fatcat:rckw4vyezjdcdfwkvsrkj7euia