Epidemiological dynamics of viral infection in a marine pico-eukaryote [article]

Luisa Listmann, Sarah Heath, Pedro F Vale, Elisa Schaum, Sinead Collins
2021 bioRxiv   pre-print
Ostreococcus tauri is a ubiquitous marine pico-eukaryote that is susceptible to lysis upon infection by its specific Ostreococcus tauri viruses (OtVs). In natural populations of O. tauri, costs of resistance are usually invoked to explain the persistence or reappearance of susceptible individuals in resistant populations. Given the low costs of resistance measured in laboratory experiments with the O. tauri/OtV system to date, the question remains of why susceptible individuals persist in the
more » ... ld at all. Epidemiological models of host and pathogen population dynamics are one useful approach to understand the conditions that can allow the coexistence of susceptible and resistant hosts. We used a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Resistant) model to investigate epidemiological dynamics under different laboratory culturing regimes that are commonly used in the O. tauri/OtV system. When taking into account serial transfer (i.e. batchcycle lengths) and dilution rates as well as different resistance costs, our model predicts that no susceptible cells should be detected under any of the simulated conditions – this is consistent with laboratory findings. We thus considered an alternative model that is not used in laboratory experiments, but which incorporates one key process in natural populations: host populations are periodically re-seeded with new infective viruses. In this model, susceptible individuals re-occurred in the population, despite low costs of resistance. This suggests that periodic attack by new viruses, rather than (or in addition to) costs of resistance, may explain the high proportion of susceptible hosts in natural populations, and underlie the discrepancy between laboratory studies and observations of fresh isolates.
doi:10.1101/2021.03.23.436719 fatcat:xmam3chybjhbpeocecwryvyqiu