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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Selenga River, which originates in Mongolia, contributes nearly 50&thinsp;% of the total inflow into Lake Baikal. Since 1996, the longest low-flow period has been observed. This paper focuses on the spatially distributed process-based modeling to assess possible runoff changes under climate projections in the XXI century using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) from ISI-MIP2 (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2) anddoi:10.5194/piahs-381-107-2019 fatcat:jhrdsjqsvbaoxpyh6zviyjrbya