Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Niño

Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, Henk A. Dijkstra
2018 Earth System Dynamics Discussions  
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method to do so combines a classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average technique with a modern machine learning approach (through an Artificial Neural Network). The attributes in such a neural network are derived from topological properties of Climate Networks
more » ... and are tested on both a Zebiak–Cane-type model and observations. For predictions up to six months ahead, the results of the hybrid model give a better skill than the CFSv2 ensemble prediction by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Moreover, results for a twelve-month lead time prediction have a similar skill as the shorter lead time predictions.
doi:10.5194/esd-2018-13 fatcat:puz36l3avrallck4npxvp5v2um