Roots of Ensemble Forecasting

John M. Lewis
2005 Monthly Weather Review  
The generation of a probabilistic view of dynamical weather prediction is traced back to the early 1950s, to that point in time when deterministic short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) achieved its earliest success. Eric Eady was the first meteorologist to voice concern over strict determinism-that is, a future determined by the initial state without account for uncertainties in that state. By the end of the decade, Philip Thompson and Edward Lorenz explored the predictability limits
more » ... ictability limits of deterministic forecasting and set the stage for an alternate view-a stochastic-dynamic view that was enunciated by Edward Epstein. The steps in both operational short-range NWP and extended-range forecasting that justified a coupling between probability and dynamical law are followed. A discussion of the bridge from theory to practice follows, and the study ends with a genealogy of ensemble forecasting as an outgrowth of traditions in the history of science.
doi:10.1175/mwr2949.1 fatcat:kcs6efbzlretpiq3qsr4r755x4