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As the UK population ages, it is forecasted that there will be an unsustainable increase in the need for, and therefore in the costs of long-term care. Although several studies have been performed to estimate these costs, they do not take into account the impact of survival patterns on costs. Focussing only on residents already in care (known commitments), we have developed, in association with an English local authority, a framework for estimating the future gross cost incurred by this group,doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601892 fatcat:2dehajkimrfe5pjptyolby67ly