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A multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model of order (0, 1, 1) X (0, 1, 1) has been applied for the prediction of monthly flow (x) in Sutlej at Bhakra dam site, using 40 years (1925-64) discharge data. The accuracy of prediction has been tested by using seven years (1965-71) observations. The root mean square error for the forecast period was calculated. It is found that the root mean square error varies from 3 per cent 1n December to about 43 per cent In September.doi:10.54302/mausam.v39i1.3188 fatcat:hyasu57yeneldo72lwamjhcoiy