In this paper, we derive a theoretical performance evaluation scheme of Kalman lter based channel tracking and data decoding for multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexed (MIMO-OFDM) communication systems that are based on orthogonal space-time block codes. The derivation is approximate, however, it is novel and demonstrated accurate for practical scenarios. Assuming a prior distribution for the initial channel we have derived the instantaneous signal to

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... ce and noise ratio (SINR) for consecutive transmission blocks in the absence of training by exploiting Kalman ltering to track the channel. A theoretical estimation of BER is then derived based on such instantaneous SINR values. The resulting analysis is able to study the effect of different parameters of the system such as the number of antennas, number of sub-carriers, mobile velocity and the assumed channel length on the BER performance of the system. Numerical examples con rm the validity of the theoretical analysis.