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Forecasting the export energy policy is an important tool for creating Russia's development strategy for the long term. The dependence of the budget on energy prices makes us look for new and more effective methods of assessing and predicting the impact of internal and external risks to the domestic economy. In terms of volatility of international oil prices on the quality of the prediction depends on the stability and balance of revenues and expenditures of the federal budget.doi:10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n1s3p313 fatcat:en5uqxukanhlrkqqne2r5g536y