Two-Strain COVID-19 Model Using Delayed Dynamic System and Big Data

Vasyl Martsenyuk, Marcin Bernas, Aleksandra Klos-Witkowska.
2021 IEEE Access  
The proposed model is based on COVID-19 Big Data Hub. It enables us to predict pandemics development taking into account multiple virus strains and delays of infectiousness. Two-strain dynamic models with distributed delays have been fitted to the time series retrieved from COVID data hub. The data at the national, regional, and county-level which are seamlessly integrated with World Bank Open Data, Google Mobility Reports, Apple Mobility Reports, have been used. The parameter identification
more » ... been fulfilled with the help of COBYLA algorithm. The simulations have been implemented with the help of Julia high-performance computing. The effect of the time delays is analyzed. The considered pipeline utilizes the data from the Hub to generate the COVID model and to produce a reliable prediction.
doi:10.1109/access.2021.3104519 fatcat:7c4xmvw4pjezzbrmowqsjm3lwq