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We assessed three important criteria of forecastability-simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty about causes, effects, and data. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that a naïve "no change" extrapolation method was the appropriate benchmark. To be useful to policy makers, a proposed forecasting method would have to provide forecasts that were substantiallydoi:10.1287/inte.1080.0383 fatcat:6vr6a2yhdzadrapk6kf5bsjzla