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A distributed daily rainfallrunoff model is applied to the Tejo and Guadiana river basins in Spain and Portugal to simulate the effects of climate change on runoff production, river flows and water resource availability with results aggregated to the monthly level. The model is calibrated, validated and then used for a series of climate change impact assessments for the period 20702100. Future scenarios are derived from the HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) using two techniques: firstly adoi:10.5194/hess-11-1175-2007 fatcat:xbpgbcidubfbvpqwy3gnqlwady