As a key area for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China, the Daqing River Basin has a tense population-water resource relationship, and it is important to examine the possible conflicts and countermeasures of water resource utilization in the area to ensure the sustainable development of the basin. Based on the quantitative evaluation of water and soil resources in the Daqing River Basin and the relationship among water, soil, grain production, and people,

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... study explored the characteristics of change of water-grain production relationship under the three scenarios of inertia development, fallow policy, and water saving, and proposed the water-grain production trade-off optimization scheme in the basin. The results show that under the current land use structure, the Daqing River Basin can be self-sufficient with grains with a small surplus, but excessive water consumption in agricultural production makes groundwater overdraft a serious problem. Although the policy of cropland fallow has been implemented in the basin, the amount of water resources saved is far less than that of groundwater overdraft. In order to control groundwater overdraft and balance water supply and demand in the basin, it is necessary to expand the fallow area of winter wheat in the eastern and southern plain of the Baiyangdian Lake by 25.3 × 10 4 hm 2 , or increase the water diversion by 7.2 × 10 8 m 3 . By 2030 the Daqing River Basin will face the dual pressure of food security and water resource security when the water resource gap of basin reaches 13.8 × 10 8 m 3 . It is necessary to increase the inter basin water transfer in the future and expand the fallow area of winter wheat to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the basin.