Fine-tuned Forecasting Techniques for COVID-19 Prediction in India [article]

Abhinav Gola, Ravi Kumar Arya, Animesh Animesh, Ravi Dugh, Zuber Khan
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
Estimation of statistical quantities plays a cardinal role in handling of convoluted situations such as COVID-19 pandemic and forecasting the number of affected people and fatalities is a major component for such estimations. Past researches have shown that simplistic numerical models fare much better than the complex stochastic and regression-based models when predicting for countries such as India, United States and Brazil where there is no indication of a peak anytime soon. In this research
more » ... . In this research work, we present two models which give most accurate results when compared with other forecasting techniques. We performed both short-term and long-term forecasting based on these models and present the results for two discrete durations.
doi:10.1101/2020.08.10.20167247 fatcat:3wzmsy44lrc3dpwydu2up7ks3e