Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing?

Anthony G. Barnston, Michael K. Tippett, Michelle L. L'Heureux, Shuhua Li, David G. DeWitt
2012 Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS)  
The low predictability of the past decade masked a gradual improvement of ENSO predictions, with skill of dynamical models now exceeding that of statistical models.
doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00111.1 fatcat:zdpbwv6yujeajlo5skztd2xa5e