Blocking and persistence

1987 Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography  
Time series of observational data have been used to study persistence of blocking over the Atlantic (northern hemisphere) and over the Australian-New Zealand region. The data used are 500-mb geopotential height data. It is shown that the probability that a blocking episode, which has prevailed for i days, will exist day i + 1 is ca 0.7 for northern hemisphere blocking and ca 0.5 for southern hemisphere blocking. The probability increases somewhat the longer the episode lasts. It is demonstrated
more » ... It is demonstrated that the statistics nevertheless may be modelled as a first order Markov process.
doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.1987.tb00286.x fatcat:ojprqb63vjhynjjqlfrk2fvo4y