On the ROC Score of Probability Forecasts

Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Francis W. Zwiers
2003 Journal of Climate  
The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) is a measure of the quality of probability forecasts that relates the hit rate to the corresponding false-alarm rate. This paper examines some aspects of the ROC curve for probability forecasts of three equiprobable categories (below normal, near normal, and above normal) in the framework of a simple analogue of a climate forecasting system. The insensitivity of the ROC score to some types of forecast biases is discussed and the link to deterministic
more » ... k to deterministic potential predictability is established in the context of the simple forecasting system. The findings are illustrated with a collection of 24-member ensemble hindcasts of seasonal mean 700-hPa temperature produced with the second generation general circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4145:otrsop>2.0.co;2 fatcat:nskgplwdkjfsrawjal3sgelpxy