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Journal of Climate
The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) is a measure of the quality of probability forecasts that relates the hit rate to the corresponding false-alarm rate. This paper examines some aspects of the ROC curve for probability forecasts of three equiprobable categories (below normal, near normal, and above normal) in the framework of a simple analogue of a climate forecasting system. The insensitivity of the ROC score to some types of forecast biases is discussed and the link to deterministicdoi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4145:otrsop>2.0.co;2 fatcat:nskgplwdkjfsrawjal3sgelpxy